Batting average by count: what each count does to the hitter

Every count, in numbers

MLB regular seasons 2022–26, 915,371 plate appearances. Each row is the plate appearances that ended on that count. "No K" means strikeouts removed: only at-bats that ended with the ball in play. Slide to see more.

The long version

When it comes to hitting at the youth level, we often talk about a general approach or strategy, like being selectively aggressive. We tell our young hitters to be aggressive on strikes on the first pitch and when they’re ahead in the count. We tell them to let the bad pitches go by, but to take advantage of the opportunities to hit the good ones.

But do they know why?

I first went looking for the answer in 2018, with three seasons of American League splits and about a thousand plate appearances from my own team’s games. The grid above uses every plate appearance from the last five big league seasons, pulled straight from MLB’s stats service, and the shape of it hasn’t changed a bit. I doubt it ever will.

Hitting theory

In its basic form, hitting is simple: Swing at strikes, don’t swing at balls.

Of course, it’s not always that simple. Different speeds can be used to deceive hitters, enticing them to swing at pitches out of the zone or mistime their swing. When the pitcher is at his best, the good pitch isn’t always easy to identify.

As a result, there are ways for hitters to improve their odds. There are counts where a pitcher is more likely to throw a strike, and there are counts where he’s more likely to throw a fastball, the pitch most hitters can handle. The key is to be in those counts and to be ready when you get there. A hitter should also want to stay out of two-strike counts, because that’s the least predictable situation and the one where he has the least control. He may need to swing at something he doesn’t like just to stay alive.

So the theory goes like this: Be aggressive on pitches that are most likely to be fastballs for strikes. That includes any count where the hitter is ahead, but particularly 3-0 and 2-0, when the pitcher needs a strike to avoid a walk. And it may include the first pitch, because it’s so important to start ahead in the count. Get ahead, and the pitcher has more options. Fall behind, and he’s forced to come in with a predictable fastball.

What the numbers are (and what they aren’t)

Each cell in the grid is the plate appearances that ended on that count, whether that was a ball put in play, a strikeout, or a walk. So the 0-0 number is what happens when a hitter swings at the first pitch and the at-bat is over right there. The 3-2 number is every full-count ending. That’s the right way to look at the question the tool is asking, which is this: If he swings here, how does it tend to go?

It’s not the only question, though. There’s a different set of numbers for what an at-bat is worth once it passes through a count (every at-bat that went through 0-1, say, wherever it ended), and on those the gap is bigger than anything on this page. One pitch, 1-0 instead of 0-1, moves the average big leaguer’s chance of reaching base by about ten points out of a hundred. If I add that view, it gets its own tab.

What the numbers say

Take a look at the table above. A few things jump out…

1. The first pitch is as good as it gets. Hitters who put the first pitch in play bat .338 and slug .571, and nothing short of a 3-ball count beats it. Take that strike and you’re at 0-1, which isn’t a disaster on its own (.322). The problem is what 0-1 leads to, because the next strike is two strikes.

2. Any count with two strikes is a major advantage for the pitcher. Averages disappear to .153 on 0-2, .161 on 1-2 and .173 on 2-2, and even a full count lands under .200. Half of the at-bats that end on 0-2 are strikeouts, which is the obvious reason.

3. The hitter’s counts are the slugging counts. The average doesn’t move much from 0-0 (.338) to 1-0 (.338) or 2-0 (.339), but the slugging climbs from .571 to .590 to .628. He’s not getting more hits in those counts. He’s getting better ones, because he’s looking for one pitch and getting it.

4. On 3-0, hitters who swing bat .389 and slug .845. That’s the best cell on the grid, and it’s also the count where nine out of ten plate appearances end in a walk. More on that in a minute.

5. Flip to the on-base tab and the 3-ball counts light up, because the next ball is first base. The two-strike column still looks awful, and 3-2 is only half a rescue.

Removing strikeouts

Since I had plenty of data to work with, I also wanted to see how two-strike results looked without the strikeouts. My theory: Having two strikes is bad not only because a strikeout becomes possible, but because a hitter is more likely to hit the ball poorly when he’s protecting the plate or expanding the zone to avoid that strikeout.

That’s the third tab, and the theory holds. Take the strikeouts out and look only at two-strike at-bats that ended with the ball in play. They still slug .460 on 0-2, .477 on 1-2 and .505 on 2-2, against .571 and up early in the count. Two strikes doesn’t just raise the odds of a whiff. It changes the swing, and the ball comes off the bat worse. That’s why the two-strike approach is a different approach and not just a scared version of the first one.

What about kids?

This is all great, but does it apply to youth baseball? Professional pitchers make life more difficult for professional hitters, and professional hitters are better equipped to adjust to whatever gets thrown at them.

When I ran the Spiders’ numbers in 2018, with close to a thousand plate appearances between us and our opponents, the pattern was the same. The batter who took a first-pitch strike lost 43 points. The batter who took a first-pitch ball gained 55. The worst counts were the two-strike counts, and the best were the ones where the hitter was ahead. I’m not going to put those numbers next to the big league ones, because the sample sizes were tiny (35 plate appearances at 2-0, 40 at 3-0) and a .667 on 3-0 is a couple of hits. But the direction was never in doubt, and I’ve never seen a youth season that argued with it.

What this all means to hitting

Let me do my best to summarize…

1. Be aggressive with a purpose on strikes in predictable counts. This doesn’t mean you should be swinging at anything close on 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1. A foul puts you in a worse count. A swing and miss hurts you just the same. Be aggressive on a strike you can hit, with the purpose of putting the ball in play hard.

2. Look fastball in the predictable counts. There’s a reason hitters do better on 0-0 than 3-2, even when you remove the strikeouts. The first pitch is more predictable. Look for a fastball, don’t react to it, and if you don’t get one, let it go.

3. Taking strikes is still okay. The point of this isn’t that you should swing at strikes at all costs when you’re ahead. Maybe the pitcher throws an offspeed pitch at an unpredictable time. Let it go. Maybe he paints the corner with a strike you couldn’t do anything with anyway. Let it go. Your odds drop a little, but swinging at those pitches wasn’t going to end well either.

4. The first pitch may be the most important pitch of the at-bat. It’s probably a fastball. The pitcher wants to get ahead. It may be the best pitch you see, and the only way to find out is to be ready for it.

5. About 3-0. The pros swing there because the pitcher throws a strike nine times in ten, and it’s almost always a fastball. Your 11-year-old’s pitcher doesn’t throw that strike nine times in ten, and a walk is a walk. So most youth hitters should take 3-0, and the green light is something a hitter earns, for one spot, with one swing. If it isn’t that pitch, he’s on first base. Fine with me.

What this means for pitchers

Flip the grid. Everything that’s bad for the hitter is the pitcher’s goal, and the shortest way there is strike one. A first-pitch strike puts the hitter at 0-1, and from there the next strike takes away his say in the at-bat. Pitching coaches track first-pitch-strike percentage for exactly this reason. Get ahead, and you can throw anything you want. Fall behind, and you’re throwing the fastball he’s been waiting for.

Your turn

The plan card above is what I’d say between pitches, one line per count, and the numbers are the reason I’d say it. Screenshot it for the team chat. Tape it to the fence. And if your approach by count is different than mine, I’d like to hear it. What do you tell your hitters on 3-0?